The Truth Twin
One decision, four versions of truth. The frozen research rule, what operations actually saw, what the executor suggested, and what the broker confirmed. Modeled P&L never becomes actual P&L by changing a label.
Audit window 2026-07-13 to 2026-07-15. Generated 2026-07-15T18:45:38+05:30. Capital base ₹200,000. Probability, not certainty.
Which percent per day is which?
Advertised base
+1.331% per day+₹2,662.00 on ₹2 lakh. Survivor-inflated research ceiling.
Advertised aggressive
+2.570% per day+₹5,140.00 on ₹2 lakh. Configured Tier 2 model, never observed.
Robust-core research
+0.752% per day+₹1,504.00. Weaker and unapproved headline sleeves removed.
Conservative planning base
+0.526% per day+₹1,052.80. Seventy percent realization applied to robust-core research.
Derived aggressive planning
+0.854% per day+₹1,707.04. conservative planning base multiplied by 1.8, less 0.094% per day funding estimate.
Current executable rate
NOT VALIDATEDAuthorized capital is 0.0%. There is no defensible positive expected daily rate yet.
Decision funnel
Prospective truth recorder
Session not started. A day becomes complete only when morning, cover, lunch and PM runs were captured, every intended ticket has a quote/depth snapshot, and Dhan orders plus trades reconcile. Missing authentication remains missing evidence.
| Slot | Captured | Machine saw | Executor kept | Suppressed | Run state |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waiting for the first prospective session. | |||||
Where decisions were lost or invented
| Cause | Decisions | Settled | Pending | Modeled net | Risk notional | Evidence |
|---|
One shared ₹2 lakh account
Analytical fractional sizing, exits processed before entries at the same timestamp. This is a no-leverage safety case, not a claim about broker margin.
| Extra round-trip slippage | Unconstrained net | Unconstrained return | Shared-pool net | Shared-pool return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 bps | −₹1,896.17 | -0.948% | −₹2,117.03 | -1.059% |
| 5 bps | −₹2,529.78 | -1.265% | −₹2,666.12 | -1.333% |
| 10 bps | −₹3,163.39 | -1.582% | −₹3,215.21 | -1.608% |
| 15 bps | −₹3,797.00 | -1.898% | −₹3,764.30 | -1.882% |
Did restored coverage add executable quality?
Research-only restored result
+₹2,047.9476 settled decisions at research timestamps. This is diagnostic evidence, not proof of quality.
Executable-timing restored result
−₹3,433.7375 comparable decisions, a −₹5,383.07 change versus their modeled fills.
Strict live-spec timing result
−₹4,482.3055 comparable live-spec decisions. Verdict: quality_not_added_after_executable_proxy.
Liquidity at ₹2 lakh
+0.249%Declared daily-liquidity floors are not the binding problem. Opening timing, spread, queueing and broker shortability remain the execution gates.
Can the machine really get the displayed price?
NUVOCO example
+₹514.96 → +₹89.74The replay books ₹308.65. The first full tradable-minute proxy is ₹318.80, a 3.29% adverse move before spread or queueing.
Downcap fade
−₹504.14Modeled +₹4,608.23 on the same resolvable rows. The opening bounce happens before a post-open order can reach the market.
All comparable trades
-3.469%Yahoo one-minute first positive-volume bar open in the first full minute after each intent; modeled stop exits retained
Remaining uncertainty
1Unresolved trade. Queue position, spread and within-minute adverse selection are still absent, so the proxy may remain optimistic.
How far can we honestly backtest?
Common ten-sleeve research portfolio
2021-02-01 to 2026-04-08Longest common window with mature daily features and exact retained F6 minute stop paths.
research_proxy One INR 2 lakh account, overlapping holding periods, family caps, deterministic deduplication and mark-to-market.
All 19 earning-sleeve research proxy
2024-01-01 to 2026-04-08C11, S3A and W24A validated history starts in 2024; exact F6 minute paths end 8 April 2026.
research_proxy Treat calendar and dormant sleeves as valid zero-event periods, not missing trades.
Complete current operational machine
No historical windowHistorical pre-open IEP, 15:22 tapes, surveillance state, results/ban state, bid-ask, exact selection order and broker fills were not all retained.
not_available_historically Begin prospectively only after every Truth Twin input recorder passes completeness. Earliest possible start after this audit is 2026-07-16.
Research exact means exact to retained rules and bars, not broker fills. Research proxy means at least one live input, timestamp, universe, spread or fill is approximated. A complete operational backtest cannot be created retroactively from data that was never recorded.
| Edge | Observed trades | Available data | Quality | Reproducibility | Binding limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| downcap_fade | 2021-01-28 to 2026-06-29 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | core_yes_complete_no | Official open proxies pre-open IEP; historical surveillance and dynamic F&O membership are incomplete. |
| div_runup | 2021-01-15 to 2026-07-06 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | pit_research_yes | 15:20 entry and exit use close proxies rather than broker fills. |
| midcap150_print_pop | 2021-03-26 to 2026-03-27 | 2021-03-01 to 2026-03-31 | research_exact | covered_cycles_only | Ten usable cycles; September 2021 source PDF is image-only and missing. |
| banentry | 2021-01-06 to 2026-06-02 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-08 | research_proxy | research_yes_operational_partial | Price coverage about 84%; historical live-feed freshness cannot be reconstructed. |
| c11_straddle | 2024-01-04 to 2026-07-07 | 2024-01-01 to 2026-07-08 | research_proxy | validated_2024_onward | Fixed-strike paths are exact but bid-ask and fills are modeled. Raw 2021-23 data is outside the frozen validation scope. |
| dc_night | 2021-02-01 to 2026-07-06 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | core_yes_operational_proxy | Machine entry is 15:22 rather than official close; historical results/surveillance vetoes are incomplete. |
| dc_pop | 2021-01-15 to 2026-07-02 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | research_yes_current_implementation_no | Current at-most-six selection is not deterministically ordered; entry is 15:22. |
| banspell | 2021-01-06 to 2026-06-25 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-08 | research_proxy | state_machine_yes_live_seen_prospective | Historical transitions exist, but the VM's frozen-on-feed-failure state can only be observed prospectively. |
| nightbook | 2021-02-01 to 2026-07-06 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | core_yes_complete_operational_no | Entry is 15:22 versus research close; 2024 delivery and historical veto data have gaps. |
| exdiv | 2021-01-21 to 2026-07-07 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | research_yes | Corporate-action and yield gates are PIT-clean, but opening and cover fills remain modeled. |
| special_div_exday | 2021-01-22 to 2026-02-06 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_exact | research_exact_unimplemented | No qualifier after February 2026; executor is not implemented. |
| event_basket | 2016-11-09 to 2026-06-19 | 2016-07-04 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | core_a_yes_current_operational_proxy | Static universe survivorship and 15:22 entry versus research close; newer Friday veto differs. |
| f6_fade | 2021-01-01 to 2026-04-08 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-04-08 | research_proxy | minute_path_yes_live_decision_no | Exact one-minute stop path exists, but historical auction IEP/quantity and current index/cost conventions do not. |
| fyend_taxloss | 2022-03-31 to 2026-04-30 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-04-30 | research_proxy | research_exact_calendar_armed | Five fiscal-year events on a survivorship-biased panel; matched controls share the bias. |
| w24a | 2024-01-12 to 2026-06-01 | 2024-01-01 to 2026-06-01 | research_proxy | partial_only | 167 of 316 targets survived coverage/validity; no bid-ask and only 53% target coverage. |
| ipo_unlock | 2021-03-08 to 2026-06-22 | 2021-02-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | research_yes_current_incomplete | Listing+30-day heuristic can differ from prospectus locks; live grader still uses next-open instead of T+10 close. |
| s3a_straddle | 2024-01-04 to 2026-07-07 | 2024-01-01 to 2026-07-08 | research_proxy | validated_2024_onward | Fixed-strike minute paths are exact but costs/fills are modeled; 2021-23 raw data was outside the frozen study. |
| ipo_listing_runner | 2021-02-03 to 2025-12-05 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | research_yes_dormant | IPO census inferred from first appearance can include demergers/relistings; no 2026 qualifiers. |
| mpb_low | 2021-03-19 to 2026-07-01 | 2021-01-01 to 2026-07-07 | research_proxy | research_yes_current_machine_no | Research uses full target/stop/15-session outcomes; live paper grader is only next-open interim. |
How many independent bets?
The 4.56 figure is an eigenvalue participation ratio, not a count of executable edges. Idiosyncratic noise can increase statistical dimensions. F6 is the retained headline proxy cousin, not the exact live index-excess decision rule. Correlation cannot rescue the failed fill audit.
| Component | Sleeves sharing risk | Economic origin | Co-active correlation | Bottom-decile overlap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | dc_night, nightbook | overnight_price_action | +0.38 | 42.2% |
| 2 | downcap_fade, f6_fade | market_microstructure | +0.47 | 40.9% |
| 3 | exdiv | calendar_forced_flow | singleton | singleton |
Calendar correlation, inactive days set to zero
| Sleeve | downcap_fade | f6_fade | nightbook | dc_night | exdiv |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| downcap_fade | +1.00 | +0.24 | +0.08 | +0.09 | -0.14 |
| f6_fade | +0.24 | +1.00 | -0.01 | +0.05 | -0.00 |
| nightbook | +0.08 | -0.01 | +1.00 | +0.38 | -0.02 |
| dc_night | +0.09 | +0.05 | +0.38 | +1.00 | -0.05 |
| exdiv | -0.14 | -0.00 | -0.02 | -0.05 | +1.00 |
Common window 2021-02-01 to 2026-04-08, 1280 sessions. Unmeasured: div_runup, midcap150_print_pop, banentry, c11_straddle, dc_pop, banspell, special_div_exday, event_basket, fyend_taxloss, w24a, ipo_unlock, s3a_straddle, ipo_listing_runner, mpb_low.
What the 39 ships really are
| Economic cluster | Displayed contribution/day | Concentration |
|---|---|---|
| overnight_momentum | +0.555% | +41.7% of displayed headline |
| open_gap_fade | +0.484% | +36.3% of displayed headline |
| dividend_cycle | +0.179% | +13.4% of displayed headline |
| ban_cycle | +0.096% | +7.2% of displayed headline |
| panic_recovery | +0.018% | +1.4% of displayed headline |
Five strongest research candidates, zero cleared for capital
| Research rank | Sleeve | Evidence depth | Robust contribution/day | Executable sample | Executable proxy net | Capital state | Shares future cap with | Next gate | Allocation |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | downcap_fade | 18,121 qualifying observations across 234 days | +0.144% | 24 | −₹504.14 | HOLD_EXECUTION_FAILED | downcap_fade, f6_fade | repair timing and fill assumptions | 0.0% |
| 2 | f6_fade | 672 deployed-spec days | +0.133% | 20 | −₹2,295.85 | HOLD_EXECUTION_FAILED | downcap_fade, f6_fade | repair timing and fill assumptions | 0.0% |
| 3 | nightbook | 1,331 nights | +0.213% | 17 | −₹2,411.29 | HOLD_EXECUTION_FAILED | dc_night, nightbook | repair timing and fill assumptions | 0.0% |
| 4 | dc_night | 1,336 nights | +0.206% | 18 | +₹55.98 | PAPER_ONLY | dc_night, nightbook | complete forward promotion gate | 0.0% |
| 5 | exdiv | 1,278 scheduled observations | +0.056% | 2 | −₹2,292.84 | HOLD_EXECUTION_FAILED | exdiv | repair timing and fill assumptions | 0.0% |
Paper promotion queue
| Rank | Candidate | State | Forward count | Outcome gate | Independence gate | Blocker |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | div_runup | BLOCKED_INFRA | 0/20 | closed forward-paper fills across at least five event dates, net mean above zero, no missing commanded exits | REQUIRES_DATED_RETURN_SERIES_AND_DEPENDENCE_MAP | no formal promoter and executable feed |
| 2 | w24a | BLOCKED_INFRA | 0/20 | mean premium P&L above zero and worst-loss to mean-win ratio at most 6 | REQUIRES_DATED_RETURN_SERIES_AND_DEPENDENCE_MAP | 15:20 schedule and live executor |
| 3 | ipo_unlock | BLOCKED_INFRA | 0/20 | full T+2-close to T+10-close forward mean above zero | REQUIRES_DATED_RETURN_SERIES_AND_DEPENDENCE_MAP | full-hold grader and router |
| 4 | c11_straddle | BLOCKED_INFRA | 0/20 | valid Thursday observations with exact 1.6x stop and 15:15 exit, net mean above zero | REQUIRES_DATED_RETURN_SERIES_AND_DEPENDENCE_MAP | live straddle executor |
| 5 | mpb_low | BLOCKED_INFRA | 0/20 | full target, stop or 15-session outcomes with net mean above zero | REQUIRES_DATED_RETURN_SERIES_AND_DEPENDENCE_MAP | full swing-hold grader |
Only closed forward-paper recorder outcomes count. Healthy replay, missed candidates, pending rows and interim proxy grades count as zero evidence. Every current candidate also needs a dated return series before the allocator can decide whether it adds a new bet or duplicates an existing family.
Decision-level audit
| Date | Symbol | Sleeve | Family | Side | Modeled P&L | Research | Ops | Executor | Broker | Cause |
|---|
Validation
| Invariant | Result | Evidence |
|---|---|---|
| event_id_unique | PASS | 142 events |
| decision_id_unique | PASS | 130 decisions |
| catalog_39 | PASS | 39 catalog items |
| headline_19 | PASS | direct/candidate edge count |
| shared_cap_never_exceeded | PASS | max 200000.00000000006 |
| slippage_monotone | PASS | 0/5/10/15 bps |
| no_modeled_pnl_in_broker_layer | PASS | broker events 0 |
| suggest_never_fill | PASS | suggestions cannot have fill quantity |
| prospective_intent_has_operational_parent | PASS | 0 prospective intents |
| broker_fill_has_exchange_identity | PASS | 0 confirmed fill events |
| promotion_forward_only | PASS | healthy replay and missed paper rows excluded |
| family_map_scope_research_only | PASS | correlations cannot be presented as broker evidence |
| family_map_missing_is_not_independence | PASS | 14 unmeasured sleeves explicitly remain unproven |
| family_map_cannot_authorize_capital | PASS | research diversification does not override execution gates |